Those concerned about B.C.'s electricity crunch fail to account for increased efficiency in the system
Work is underway to help ensure B.C.'s grid can support its electrified future | BC Hydro
Dan Woynillowicz and Madeleine McPherson Sep 23, 2024
BIV Business Intelligence for BC https://www.biv.com/news/commentary/opinion-bcs-energy-debate-needs-less-heat-and-more-fact-9562887
The B.C. Coalition for Affordable Dependable Energy (BCCADE)—which advocates for the continued use of natural gas—has been promoting an analysis of the implications of replacing the natural gas currently used in residential and commercial buildings with electricity. For starters, this isn’t something prescribed by any provincial or municipal policy, but even if it was their calculation—that the province would require 41,100 gigawatt hours of additional electricity generation—is simply wrong.
Regrettably, this analysis falls victim to something called the primary energy fallacy, which fails to account for the efficiency gains from electrification.
While gas furnace efficiency ranges from 80 per cent to 90 per cent, an electric heat pump is, conservatively, more than twice as efficient. Similarly, an electric hot water tank is around 30 per cent more efficient than its gas equivalent. When you factor in these significant efficiency gains, total energy requirements for residential and commercial buildings drop; replacing current natural gas use would require about 20,000 gigawatt hours of additional electricity generation—just half the amount touted by BCCADE.
Which brings us to the ongoing efforts of the Energy Futures Institute, an initiative of Resource Works, to raise the alarm about whether B.C. has sufficient electricity in the near term, let alone in an electrified future. To spark public anxiety, the Institute has focused on BC Hydro’s recently increased reliance on electricity imports—precipitated by drought conditions—while mostly ignoring BC Hydro’s procurement of additional supply (which will be repeated every two years), and publishing research that overestimates future demand from electric vehicles (EVs) by at least double.
First, it’s important to acknowledge that BC Hydro is adapting to two realities: The growing impacts of climate change and growing demand for clean electricity to help tackle climate change through electrification. It’s why BC Hydro is continuously monitoring and adapting its operations as new climate science emerges, while procuring additional supply contracts every two years. BC Hydro’s current call for power received proposals for triple the amount of electricity it is seeking, with 21 proposals from independent power producers with projects in almost every region: Eight from the Southern Interior, four from the Central Interior, five from the North Coast, two from the Peace Region and two from Vancouver Island. Wind, solar and batteries can be built quickly and technology costs have been dropping over the last decade as global production has increased exponentially—by 90 per cent for solar, 70 per cent for onshore wind and more than 90 percent for batteries. Paired with the province’s flexible hydro reservoirs, B.C is well positioned to increase its role in delivering reliable, affordable clean power.
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